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Strong storms possible for some late this afternoon

Today’s storms kick start a week of off-and-on rain chances
Published: Apr. 12, 2021 at 5:02 AM CDT|Updated: Apr. 12, 2021 at 12:03 PM CDT
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Central Texas has been in desperate need of some rainfall since we’re about 6″ behind where we should be for this time of year. Thankfully, we’ll have ample opportunities to take a small bite into that rainfall deficit this week as multiple storm systems move through the area giving us a few chances for rain. We’re also grateful that most of this rainy week of weather will NOT feature severe weather. The one exception to that is today. A few isolated severe storms are possible late this afternoon as a cold front arrives. Not everyone will experience severe weather today since late-afternoon storms will be isolated, but if any strong storms fire up, they’ll likely contain large hail (potentially up to golf-ball size) and strong wind gusts between 60 and 65 MPH. Strong storms are possible near and especially west of I-35 with cities and towns along and west of Highway 281 under a level 2 of 5 slight risk of severe storms. We’ll see partly-to-mostly cloudy skies throughout the day as highs again warm into the mid-80s. The entire day will be dry until those late-day storms start to fire up after about 4 PM. The isolated strong storms late this afternoon should try to congeal into a blob of storms as they march toward I-35. When the sun starts to come down, we’re expecting the storms to gradually diminish in intensity, but rain and storms should continue until around 3 AM before we mostly dry out by daybreak.

Rain and storm chances will stay fairly low throughout the day Tuesday. Most of the day’s rain chances will stay near 20% as a few stray sprinkles could move through. Morning temperatures in the 50s and low 60s should warm into the mid-70s late in the day. A cold front that’ll move through Monday night is expected to stall just to our south. If the front manages to move farther south than forecast, temperatures will be significantly cooler than forecast as we start out in the 50s and only warm into the mid 60s. This is fairly unlikely to happen but it’s still a possibility. We’re only forecasting a 20% chance of a few isolated showers late in the afternoon and early Tuesday evening so the National Championship Parade through Downtown Waco should go off without a weather hitch, but more numerous showers and storms are expected to push in Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

With a few different storm systems moving through Central Texas during the week, rain chances stay between 30% and 50% through Friday. It won’t rain continuously each and every day and severe weather isn’t in the forecast, but rain could be locally heavy at times. Wednesday’s rain chances are near 40%, especially during the afternoon and evening, with a 30% chance on Thursday. Friday is when we’ll have the best potential for rain, near 50%, which could hang around for much of the day off-and-on. With showers in the forecast, high temperatures mid-week into the weekend are expected to only reach the mid-to-upper 60s but could be a bit warmer depending on exactly when rain moves through. We’ll stay comfortable this weekend with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s with a 30% rain chance Saturday dropping to 20% Sunday. Rain chances are out of the forecast for the start of next week. We’re expecting to start the week with lots of sunshine and temperatures in the 70s for highs! Rain chances stay out of the forecast for now next week meaning we may get through the middle of April with only one chance of severe weather (that day being today).

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