Calendar says fall, weather says summer

Published: Sep. 21, 2022 at 3:26 PM CDT
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It’s the last day of summer and it sure does feel like it all across Central Texas. Summer will officially come to an end around 8:04 p.m. Thursday, but sadly our temperatures do not start feeling like fall for quite some time. In fact, we look to deal with potential RECORD heat for the first few days of the new season.

  • Record high for Thursday 9/22: 100° set back in 2005
  • Record high for Friday 9/23: 99° set back in 2005
  • Record high for Saturday 9/24: 102 set back in 1977

We saw triple digit readings on Tuesday, which now takes our 100° counter for 2022 up to 64 days. We will potentially add to that number as we head into the weekend as our temperatures look to remain at or near 100°.

Now the one good thing that we’re tracking is a cold front. Yes it will bring some relief to the heat, but not the major taste of fall we’re all waiting for. Unfortunately our temperatures look to remain above the normal for this time of the year for much of next work week.

To break down our temperatures, Thursday through Sunday will feature highs in the mid 90s to low 100s. That cold front arrives Sunday night into early Monday morning. Breezy north winds will be bringing in cooler air behind the front throughout the day on Monday. We’re still thinking highs will be in the low 90s for the start of the work week. By Tuesday through the following weekend, we should keep highs around 88° to 90°. Our normal temperature for this time of the year is in the upper 80s. So we won’t be too far off of that, but still definitely warm for this time of the year.

Now we will have some very pleasant mornings next week courtesy of the cold front. Monday morning will be the warmest morning of the entire week. As the cold front works its way in, temperatures will still be in the low 70s heading back to work and school. By the time you head out the door Tuesday morning, low temperatures look to be in the upper 50s and low 60s, and they’ll be staying cool like that all week long.

We still really need some rain to head into Central Texas and this front does not look like it will bring us any. We will keep a stray shower or storm chance for Sunday night as the front moves south, but the better chances for rain will be to our south on Monday. After those small rain chances, we keep lower humidity and zero rain chances.

Now for an update on the tropics. Fiona is now in the open waters of the Atlantic and is a major category 4 storm. The latest track of Fiona keeps it just west of Bermuda late in the work week, and then brings it into Atlantic Canada as a very strong post-tropical cyclone. It could bring that area 100 mph winds, flooding, and dangerous storm surge. Tropical Storm Gaston formed Tuesday afternoon. This storm looks to remain out in the ocean and pose no threat to land.

The one we are tracking here in Texas is Invest 98 in the western Atlantic. Shower and thunderstorm activity fired up just east of the Lesser Antilles. This system is forecast to move into the  Caribbean Sea this weekend and likely strengthens into a tropical storm.

Although we’re very confident in the forecast for Invest 98 through Saturday, the potential paths after Saturday include moving into the Gulf of Mexico, crossing over Cuba or Hispaniola, or potentially moving into Central America. While a tropical storm or hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico means a U.S. landfall would be extremely likely, Sunday’s front could help to change the upper-air pattern enough to keep the storm away from Texas. This is, of course, yet to be seen, so Invest 98 is worth keeping an eye on.

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