Rain chances have finally returned (late next week)

Published: Oct. 4, 2022 at 5:10 AM CDT
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We’re still in dire straights for rainfall across Central Texas with low lake levels, extremely dry ground, and of course major impacts to agricultural interests. We’re not forecasting drought-busting rain, but we’re seeing consistent signs that an upper-level low may help to bring us rain late next week. Unfortunately, that’s still a long ways away and we’re still forecasting warmer-than-normal temperatures pretty much right up until the storm system arrives. Today’s weather will be about the same as yesterday with morning lows in the 50s and low 60s warming into the mid-to-upper 80s. We’ll slowly warm up ahead of our next two fronts, one arriving Thursday and the other Friday, but the temperature change wont’ be too crazy and upper 80s and low 90s will return Wednesday through Friday with morning lows staying in the 50s and lower 60s. Thursday’s cold front comes through with only a brief northerly wind shift, but the Friday evening cold front brings us a bigger wind shift and a noticeable change in temperatures as we dip into the mid-80s this weekend.

The area of high pressure that’ll bring us the weekend “chill” will be fleeting and we’ll warm right back up for the majority of next week. Morning lows remain comfortable in the 50s, but afternoon highs reach the upper 80s Monday and Tuesday before we reach the low 90s again Wednesday. Next week’s rain chances start as early as Wednesday as a weak disturbance approaches the area. This disturbance likely moves through on Thursday, bringing us the best chance (so far) for rainfall, but there’s a chance that this disturbance could be just a bit too far to our north for widespread rain. It’s something we’ll be monitoring over the next week, but we’ll also have to monitor the larger upper-level storm system that’ll meander across the western U.S. By the end of next week and into next weekend, there’s a chance this system could swing eastward which may bring us better rain and storm chances.

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