Winter is coming!

A cold front moved through Central Texas on Saturday bringing cooler weather to end the weekend. The main story with this frontal passage has been the temperature change. We are 10° to 20° cooler than what we were seeing on Saturday. Even though we are cooler today, our temperatures are still a few degrees warmer than our average this time of the year… But that will quickly change later this week as another strong cold front is set to move in.

Clouds continue to stream into Central Texas Sunday night into the new work week. Winds start to shift out of the east/southeast overnight, which will pump in higher humidity air once again. Heading to work and school Monday, patchy fog/sprinkles/drizzle look possible across Central Texas. Heading out the door temperatures look to be in the mid 50s to around 60°. Monday afternoon looks warmer and a bit more muggy than Sunday. Breezy southeast winds allow our temperatures to climb back into the mid 60s to around 70°. Overall mostly cloudy skies should remain, although we may see some sun peeking out during the day.

Our next storm system is set to approach Central Texas late Monday into Tuesday. That system is a strong Pacific cold front that will race in from the west. Ahead of this system, scattered rain showers look possible starting Monday afternoon with chances continuing into the overnight hours. The front moves into our western areas around 5 a.m. Tuesday, reaching near I-35 mid-morning, and racing further east into the afternoon.

As the front moves in, a line of showers and storms look possible for Central Texas. Now, forecast models have been fairly consistent with the better chance for severe weather remaining to our north and east as the front moves through. There is a chance for a few strong to severe storms to our northwest Monday night. The higher chance for severe weather is on Tuesday as the front races east. For Central Texas, areas near and east of I-35 are under a Marginal Risk, level 1 out of 5, for severe storms Tuesday. The further east you travel the greater the chance for severe storms. There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for areas east of I-45 and even an Enhanced Risk (3 out of 5) for far east Texas and the northern half of Louisiana. Hail, damaging winds, and even a few tornadoes look possible as the storm system races east. The main concern for storms in Central Texas will be hail and damaging winds.

If you’re a fan of the warmer weather, then you definitely want to enjoy the first few days of this week. We remain warmer than normal in the 60s for Monday and Tuesday, but then some colder, Arctic air will be diving south into Central Texas and temperatures will be getting colder every day of the week into the weekend.

Strong west winds return Tuesday behind the front. Temperatures on Tuesday start out in the mid to upper 60s and will cool off some for the afternoon behind the front. A trailing cold front will move in from the north Tuesday night into Wednesday and that will start to bring in some of that colder air. Temperatures look to be closer to normal in the low 60s Wednesday, but breezy north/northwest winds will hang around Thursday into the start of the weekend, which will continue to funnel in that colder, Canadian air. Temperatures drop back into the mid to upper 50s Thursday and upper 40s and low 50s Friday. We’ll be monitoring the potential return for freezing temperatures as we head into the weekend and highs for Saturday and Sunday may not even reach 50°.

Forecast models are showing some differences with how long this colder than normal weather hangs around, but they have been hinting at this colder air sticking around into the Christmas holiday. Just how cold will we be for Christmas and the end of the year? Well it is still a little too early to tell, but we’ll continue to keep you updated. One thing for sure, once you pull out your jackets this week, we may be needing them for quite awhile.

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