Above normal temperatures generally GONE until at least Christmas

Warm weather is GONE. Like, GONE GONE. For a while!
Published: Dec. 15, 2022 at 5:25 AM CST
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Temperatures across Central Texas this month have been a bit on the warm side to say the least. Through the first two weeks of the month, Central Texas is currently sitting at 9th warmest first two weeks of December all time. We can say, with confidence, that we will NOT sniff anywhere close to the top-10 list for warmest December of all-time because we only have one day out of the next 10 that has an “average” high temperatures. Everything else is below average and, by next week, well below average! Today’s weather will be gorgeous albeit chilly. Morning lows in the low-to-mid 30s will warm up quickly as sunny skies return. We’re expecting most locations to stay in the mid-to-upper 50s for highs, but a few low 60s are possible near and south of Highway 190/I-14. While we’ll spend another morning close to freezing tomorrow, clouds will move back in quickly and that’ll cap our high temperatures closer to 50°.

We’ll keep a close eye on the potential for some morning precipitation Saturday. A weak disturbance will move through the state but will mostly be focused on South-Central Texas. If the system gets close enough to our area, morning lows in the low-to-mid 30s may lend itself to a few sleet pellets mixed in with whatever isolated rain may fall. Despite near-freezing temperatures, the recent warmth, very low rainfall totals, and the returning sunshine in the afternoon means there will be no impacts to travel. Saturday’s morning disturbance clears the clouds enough to “warm” us into the low-to-mid 50s both on Saturday and Sunday, but Sunday’s morning low likely dips into the upper 20s and low 30s.

Some changes arrive late Sunday as another disturbance moves in from the southwest. Forecast models are still split about whether or not this disturbance moves in, but it’s still looking like it will. The increase in clouds Sunday night keeps morning lows in the low-to-mid 40s with high temperatures in the 40s and low 50s. Temperatures Monday may not warm up much at all because the disturbance passing through should bring us widely scattered showers. Although there will be some wintry weather with this storm system, all of it will remain north of the Red River and it’ll likely just be a cold and rainy day. Should Monday’s storm system NOT move through, morning temperatures Monday will be cooler and afternoon highs will likely be warmer in the mid-50s.

All eyes remain locked in on what will likely be a record-setting blast of cold air that’ll move through the U.S. late next week. While we’re still a few days away from specifics about how cold it’ll get and how long it’ll stay cold, it’s increasingly likely that we’ll avoid any precipitation with this shot of cold air. The biggest hang-up for next week’s forecast isn’t so much the quality of cold air that’ll move into the country but exactly where the cold will set up. The coldest air could completely miss us to the east, but it’s more likely that the core of the cold will move in next Thursday and Friday. The coldest air could stick around right overhead through Christmas weekend, but forecast model data is trending more towards the cold air moving eastward around Christmas. Our forecast for now calls for high temperatures Thursday in the mid-40s dropping into the mid-to-upper 30s for highs Friday, Saturday, and potentially even into Sunday. Morning lows next Friday and Saturday will likely be in the upper teens and low-to-mid 20s. Should the coldest part of next week’s airmass move out during the weekend, we’ll warm up some leading into Christmas, but colder-than-normal temperatures are expected.

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