More record warmth possible this week before cooler air arrives

Fire Danger remains high until some rain chances return
Published: Jan. 15, 2023 at 3:55 PM CST
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It’s been a warm and windy end to the weekend. Temperatures Sunday afternoon soared into the upper 60s and low 70s - Which is around 10 to 15° above our normal high of 59°. Cloud cover and breezy south winds hang tough overnight and that will keep things mild as you head into Monday morning. For the morning commute - Look for temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s with mostly cloudy skies. Monday is Martin Luther King Jr. Day and for the afternoon warm, spring-like conditions continue. Temperatures will soar into the mid 70s to around 80° with a mix of sun and clouds and west/southwest winds gusting around 30 mph. These winds will keep fire danger elevated! Remain cautious outdoors.

The increase in winds and clouds that we saw over the weekend were due to an approaching storm system moving closer to Texas from the west. That next system will approach our area on Monday. The main dynamics of this system passes to our north/northeast - That means we will have very little to no rain and no cool down heading our way. We could see a few sprinkles across our southeastern areas - But the better chance for rain develops to our east.

The one thing we’ll see with that system is breezy west/southwest winds - Which pump in even warmer and drier air and leave Central Texas with high fire danger heading into the new work week. No record warmth for Monday - But temperatures will still be around 20° above normal for this time of the year. Drier air moves in Monday night into Tuesday and that’ll allow our temperatures to cool back into the low 50s for Tuesday morning. Tuesday afternoon will be very warm once again - With highs warming to near 80° for the afternoon. The record high for Tuesday, January 17th will be threatened. The record is 79° set back in 1952 and 1907.

Another storm system will move through Central Texas by the middle of the week. That system will be a stronger Pacific cold front that arrives Wednesday morning. Rain chances will be increasing with this front and it looks to be some of the best chances Central Texas has seen in awhile. Scattered showers and thunderstorms look possible late Tuesday into Wednesday morning with conditions drying out for Wednesday afternoon. The best chances look to be for areas near and east of I-35. Rain totals look to be around a quarter of an inch or less for the eastern half of the area with only trace amounts west. Isolated higher amounts may be possible - But overall the better rain chances stay to our east. Temperatures look to stay in the 70s on Wednesday - But as northwest winds return behind the front - Cooler temperatures back into the 60s expected for Thursday and Friday.

Now our long-term forecast models are bringing a cooler and wetter weather pattern change into Central Texas for the end of January. Another cold front may move in early Saturday and bring back shower chances and even cooler weather for the weekend. High temperatures may be in the 50s and low 60s next weekend! Another front may also move in by the start of the following work week - Keeping Central Texas with more normal “winter-like temperatures” and at least some with rain chances. The Climate Prediction Center has Central Texas with a good chance at below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation chances as January ends. More updates to come on this!

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